“Jobless growth”: AI works — who else does?

It is the year 2030. Mélanie, 42, works as an engineer in a mid-sized industrial company. Just a few years ago, she coordinated a team of five employees, planned processes, analysed data and wrote technical reports. Today, an AI system completes a large share of these tasks in a matter of seconds. The company is producing more than ever, profits are rising — but new jobs remain scarce. Some roles have been consolidated, others have disappeared altogether. Mélanie still has a job, but her day-to-day working life has changed profoundly. She wonders: who really benefits from technological progress?

“Jobless growth”, or growth without job creation

Many companies are investing heavily in AI and automation while remaining cautious about hiring and seeking higher productivity with fewer staff. Administrative work and traditional office jobs are particularly affected.

This is exactly the issue worrying economists and social partners around the world today. Artificial intelligence could significantly boost economic growth in the coming years — without necessarily creating new jobs. Economists are already speaking of “jobless growth”, a term used to describe growth without job creation. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG, has even warned of a historic decoupling of economic growth from the labour market.

New rhythms of work

A recent Harvard Business Review study analysed the impact of AI on the tasks carried out in a US tech company with around 200 employees. It points to the following effects:

• An overall increase in the number of tasks per employee and in the pace of work: the time AI saves on some tasks is offset by other assignments, including checking AI-generated data and carrying out follow-up reviews.
• A diversification of tasks: product managers, for example, have started coding with the help of AI.
• The need to handle several tasks at once, which some describe as an additional source of stress.

Challenges for social cohesion

From workers’ point of view, technological progress is a good thing in itself. It becomes problematic when productivity gains end up almost exclusively in the hands of capital owners, platforms and highly qualified specialists. The central social question of the AI era is therefore not whether the economy is growing, but who still gets to share in that growth.

AI must not lead to growth without distribution: that is the key challenge. When productivity rises without benefiting employment, wages or the prospects of working people, social imbalance deepens. For Switzerland and its model of social partnership, the issue is especially pressing: how can technological progress and social cohesion be preserved together in the years ahead?

Angestellte Schweiz is taking action

For employee associations, the issue is not to slow down AI, but to help shape how it is introduced. Investment in continuing education and training, employee participation within companies, and a fair share in productivity gains will be decisive. In the long term, economic progress can only succeed if as many people as possible benefit from it.

With this in mind, Angestellte Schweiz wants to play an active part in this debate, notably through initiatives such as the “Einstain” think tank. The aim is to anticipate the effects of artificial intelligence from the employee perspective, interpret social developments and formulate concrete proposals for policymakers, business leaders and social partners. Because the question of how we want to work tomorrow must not be determined by technological possibilities alone.